中国低碳城市试点的政策设计逻辑

政策试点是中国国家治理策略体系的重要组成部分,是中国政府遵循“由点到面”逻辑以试验手段制定政策的一种常规性工作方法。低碳城市试点是中国应对气候变化战略的重要组成部分,通过选择不同类型、不同发展阶段、不同资源禀赋的地区开展试点,探索经济增长与碳排放脱钩的模式。现有文献侧重低碳城市建设的内涵、建设模式与路径、温室气体的核算方法、政策手段、峰值研究与达峰路径、效果评估等,有力地支持了低碳城市建设决策,但对于低碳城市试点的政策设计鲜有涉及。本文从政策过程理论、央地关系两个视角,结合府际学习与竞争关系,建构了中国低碳城市政策“试点–扩散”机制与政府行为的分析框架。中国的低碳城市试点具有探索型开拓性、综合型专业性、授权型自主性的特点,结合三批低碳城市试点的文件要求和实践进展,从政策试点的选点、设计、执行、监督和评估五个方面对于中国低碳城市试点进行了系统的梳理分析。相较于经济领域的其他政策试点,低碳城市政策试点具有弱激励弱约束的政策环境。地方政府基于自身的学习能力和领导力,在政策创新方面表现出争先、自主、效仿和守成四种行为特征,并以杭州、深圳、镇江、成都四个表率城市做了实证。政策“试点-扩散”的过程从本质上讲是中国政策创新与扩散的过程,可能在现实中需要往复多次进行,中国已陆续开展的三批低碳城市试点工作就遵循这样的政策逻辑。试点的意义是试出问题、解决问题、积累经验。从前三批试点城市评估结果来看,试点城市在低碳发展目标设定、转型路径探索和低碳发展动力转换等方面与社会的预期仍有差距,为此本文提出了推进低碳城市建设的四点建议:一是激发城市低碳发展的内生动力;二是完善低碳城市试点的科学论证机制;三是建立激励与约束并举的长效机制;四是强化市场公平竞争的政策导向。     

基于蒙特卡洛模拟的多米诺事故风险量化管理*

为降低危化品相关的化工事故造成的人员伤亡和财产损失，以化工多米诺事故为研究对象，探讨由初始事故引发1个或多个次生事故的连锁反应机理与风险评估方法。提出应用蒙特卡洛模拟对多米诺事故风险进行动态量化的方法，梳理化工多米诺事故风险的识别、分析、评定、处理全周期管理流程，并以1个天然气压气站为案例，验证基于蒙卡模拟的化工多米诺事故风险量化方法的有效性。结果表明:该方法可以更准确地对化工多米诺事故风险进行定量评估。多米诺事故风险全周期管理流程的梳理能够有效指导化工企业开展安全管理、事故预防等工作。     

A strategy for wildlife management in depopulating rural areas of Japan

Former ranges of wild animals have been reestablished in many developed countries. However, this reestablishment has led to increasing human–wildlife conflict in agroforest ecosystems. In Japan, human–wildlife conflict, such as crop raiding by and ecological impacts of wild ungulates and primates, is a serious problem in depopulated rural areas due to these animal range expansions and increased abundances. Japan's human population is predicted to decline by 24% by 2050, and approximately 20% of agricultural settlements will become completely depopulated. In this scenario, anthropogenic pressures on wildlife (e.g., hunting and habitat alteration) will continue to decrease and human–wildlife conflict will increase due to increasing wildlife recovery. Japan's local governments plan to slow range recovery, prevent species reestablishment, or remove recolonizing large mammals through lethal control. This strategy, however, is not cost-effective, and workforce shortages in depopulated communities make it infeasible. Moreover, the suppression of wildlife prevents the recovery of ecological functions and thus would degrade regional biodiversity. The declining pressure on wildlife that accompanies human depopulation will prevent the restoration of any past states of human–wildlife interaction. We suggest human-used areas in rural landscapes be aggregated in compact cities and that in transition zones between human settlements and depopulated lands that land-sharing approaches be applied. Concentrating management efforts in compact cities may effectively decrease human–wildlife conflict, rather than intensifying human pressures. Reforestation of depopulated lands may lead to recovery of wildlife habitats, their ecosystem functions, and regional biodiversity due to minimization of negative anthropogenic effects (land-sparing approach). Balancing resolution of human–wildlife conflict and ecological rewilding could become a new, challenging task for regional wildlife managers.     

收入差距是否影响环境质量?——国内外研究综述

近年来,收入差距扩大与环境质量恶化成为许多国家同时面临的问题,也让一些经济学家开始思考,这两者之间是否存在关联。继20世纪90年代环境库兹涅茨曲线提出以来,一些研究发现不仅收入的绝对水平会对环境质量产生影响,收入差距对环境质量也有影响。本文对这一课题的理论研究进行了梳理,发现现有理论中收入差距对环境质量的影响途径主要有三条。第一条途径是消费者途径,即收入差距影响着以消费为主的个人经济行为,进一步影响着社会消费总量和消费结构,及其过程中产生的污染总量。第二条途径是企业途径,即认为收入差距的扩大会削弱环保型产品的正外部性,不利于环保技术的创新活动,对未来环境质量的改善产生动态影响。第三条途径是政府途径,即认为收入差距会影响相关的环境政策方式与强度选择;而且在不同的社会政策决策机制下,收入差距对环境政策的影响也是不同的,现有的社会决策机制分析框架主要有两种——权利权重型社会决策规则和简单多数规则。此外,本文还对现存的主要实证研究进行了总结,发现大多数研究结论都支持收入差距对环境质量存在着影响,但这种影响并不是线性的。一方面,收入差距对环境的影响与研究的污染物种类有关,大多数研究都显示,收入不平等对CO 2排放和土壤污染存在着负向影响,但有关收入差距对空气污染和水污染影响的研究结论并不统一或并不显著。另一方面,这种影响还与经济发展水平相关,在高收入国家与低收入国家是不同的,存在着阈值效应。最后本文总结了针对中国的研究现状,讨论了其在我国的适用性。     

Effects of amusing memes on concern for unappealing species

There is limited knowledge of the mechanisms that can inspire people's concern and engagement in the protection of unpopular and unappealing species. We analyzed Polish people's interest in themed internet memes featuring the proboscis monkey (Nasalis larvatus) and the consequences of this interest for conservation marketing. We examined Google Trends data, used Google Search, and searched popular media materials to estimate interest in the proboscis monkey in Poland. Photos of the proboscis monkey when presented with humor in internet memes attracted as much interest as usually more popular species (e.g., koala, panda, and orangutan) used in marketing by nongovernmental organizations. Amusing internet memes spread by social media positively correlated with increasing interest in the unappealing species, such as proboscis monkey. Interest in amusing internet memes positively correlated with individuals’ decisions to donate to 6 crowdfunding actions. Thus, conservation marketing that includes amusing memes and social media may provide a worthwhile complement to traditional campaigns and are likely to influence individuals who are unaffected by the usual means.     

Identification of policies for a sustainable legal trade in rhinoceros horn based on population projection and socioeconomic models

Between 1990 and 2007, 15 southern white (Ceratotherium simum simum) and black (Diceros bicornis) rhinoceroses on average were killed illegally every year in South Africa. Since 2007 illegal killing of southern white rhinoceros for their horn has escalated to >950 individuals/year in 2013. We conducted an ecological–economic analysis to determine whether a legal trade in southern white rhinoceros horn could facilitate rhinoceros protection. Generalized linear models were used to examine the socioeconomic drivers of poaching, based on data collected from 1990 to 2013, and to project the total number of rhinoceroses likely to be illegally killed from 2014 to 2023. Rhinoceros population dynamics were then modeled under 8 different policy scenarios that could be implemented to control poaching. We also estimated the economic costs and benefits of each scenario under enhanced enforcement only and a legal trade in rhinoceros horn and used a decision support framework to rank the scenarios with the objective of maintaining the rhinoceros population above its current size while generating profit for local stakeholders. The southern white rhinoceros population was predicted to go extinct in the wild <20 years under present management. The optimal scenario to maintain the rhinoceros population above its current size was to provide a medium increase in antipoaching effort and to increase the monetary fine on conviction. Without legalizing the trade, implementing such a scenario would require covering costs equal to approximately $147,000,000/year. With a legal trade in rhinoceros horn, the conservation enterprise could potentially make a profit of $717,000,000/year. We believe the 35‐year‐old ban on rhinoceros horn products should not be lifted unless the money generated from trade is reinvested in improved protection of the rhinoceros population. Because current protection efforts seem to be failing, it is time to evaluate, discuss, and test alternatives to the present policy.     

城市生活垃圾处理方式生命周期评价的比较研究

生命周期评价理论与方法作为一种量化环境影响的工具,在诸多领域中得到了广泛的应用。在垃圾处理领域,生命周期评价最早在20世纪90年代得到应用。生命周期评价与城市生活垃圾处理的有效结合,将促进城市生活垃圾的减量化、资源化、无害化目标的实现。总结了生命周期评价理论与方法在城市生活垃圾处理中的应用现状。对国内不同城市生活垃圾处理方式环境影响因子进行比较分析,诸如全球变暖潜力、酸化潜力和富营养化潜力等因子。针对其目标范围定义、数据收集、评价方法的选择、结果解释及工艺改进等方面指出了目前研究的局限性和不足。并对未来城市生活垃圾处理生命周期评价的发展方向进行展望。     

利用卫星遥感评估广西壮族自治区SO_2减排成效

基于2005—2012年OMI卫星遥感PBL SO2柱浓度数据分析了广西壮族自治区SO2污染的时空格局和变化特征,并结合燃煤火电厂SO2排放模型估算与工业经济增长数据,在时间、空间尺度上分析了自治区内不同区域的SO2污染对火电厂烟气脱硫政策的响应以及所呈现出的减排成效。结果表明,广西因火电厂脱硫政策驱动的SO2污染改善具有显著的空间异质性,自治区内高污染区的SO2浓度在2011—2012年出现了显著下降,而低污染区的SO2浓度则在8年中持续增长;排放模型估算结果显示,烟气脱硫驱动的火电厂SO2减排贡献将在2008年后持续下降,而遥感观测结果显示,广西全区SO2半年浓度均值总体呈现波动上升趋势,2005—2012年浓度增加了8.6%、年均增长约0.9%;综合工业经济增长数据发现,近年来其他工业源的增量排放已给广西SO2减排带了新挑战,而这一变化仍未得到相关决策部门关注,存在明显缺陷的SO2统计排放量数据尚未得到修正。针对上述污染变化新特征,政府相关部门应引起足够重视,尽快更新完善污染源信息并启动针对其他污染源的限排措施,以确保环境持续改善。     

Designing a policy package for the promotion of servicising: A case study of vineyard crop protection in Galicia (Spain)

The servicising approach in vineyard protection is considered a valid alternative to achieve decoupling between the economic and environmental performance of viticulture. In this paper, a policy package is designed to promote the uptake of a servicised model of vineyard protection in an area of smallholding viticulture. In doing so, a specific methodology based on a step by step protocol has been followed that aims to come up with a package that is effective, implementable and socially as well as politically acceptable. The paper concludes on the importance of combining several policy instruments in a policy package to realise the political objective. The proposed viable policy package includes incentives that support the companies’ shift towards offering crop protection solutions, further development of IPM solutions and instruments that encourage farmers to reduce the use of pesticides and collectively hire crop protection services.     

Research priorities for conservation and natural resource management in Oceania's small‐island developing states

For conservation science to effectively inform management, research must focus on creating the scientific knowledge required to solve conservation problems. We identified research questions that, if answered, would increase the effectiveness of conservation and natural resource management practice and policy in Oceania's small‐island developing states. We asked conservation professionals from academia, governmental, and nongovernmental organizations across the region to propose such questions and then identify which were of high priority in an online survey. We compared the high‐priority questions with research questions identified globally and for other regions. Of 270 questions proposed by respondents, 38 were considered high priority, including: What are the highest priority areas for conservation in the face of increasing resource demand and climate change? How should marine protected areas be networked to account for connectivity and climate change? What are the most effective fisheries management policies that contribute to sustainable coral reef fisheries? High‐priority questions related to the particular challenges of undertaking conservation on small‐island developing states and the need for a research agenda that is responsive to the sociocultural context of Oceania. Research priorities for Oceania relative to elsewhere were broadly similar but differed in specific issues relevant to particular conservation contexts. These differences emphasize the importance of involving local practitioners in the identification of research priorities. Priorities were reasonably well aligned among sectoral groups. Only a few questions were widely considered answered, which may indicate a smaller‐than‐expected knowledge‐action gap. We believe these questions can be used to strengthen research collaborations between scientists and practitioners working to further conservation and natural resource management in this region.